Hot Updates
- Severodonetsk fell slowly as expected, but then Lysychansk fell quickly because Russian troops surrounded it, and Ukrainian troops had to retreat rather than be destroyed. It’s possible the Ukrainians were out-gamed by Russian mid-level commanders.
- So far, Russians have not been able to break out of Donetsk city — that part of the original Feb 24 defense line is holding
- Russia appears to have deployed nearly 100% of its conventional combat capabilities to Ukraine, and is still getting clobbered.
- Russia is trying to recruit “volunteer” regiments to deploy in Ukraine to relieve Russian troops — they will be low quality, and so their use would be to hang tight in certain areas and try to pin down Ukrainian units. Not useless, but not super useful.
The Big Picture
- Once again we have returned to slow movement along the front lines now that Severodonetsk and Lysychansk fell.
- Ukrainians fell back to the 2nd of 3 highly defensible urban areas in Donetsk oblast, with Siversk and Bakhmut the big towns there. Bakhmut is under a lot of pressure; Russians are trying to surround it, but so far to no avail.
- Russians attempting to attack directly on those two towns, but also continuing to try the end-around from Izium toward Sloviansk to try to create a pocket that can be cut off. So far it’s really not working. It looks like Russia might be deprioritizing that angle as of July 31.
- WHAT IS HIMARS? WHY DOES IT MATTER?
- HIghly Mobile Artillery Rocket System
- Super-accurate, and doesn’t create the big earth-rattling that tube artillery does, so it’s hard to strike back. And then it’s easy to move. So it’s like an artillery sniper.
- Ukraine got 8 of them. This doesn’t seem like a ton. (Russia has literally thousands and thousands of tube artillery) But Ukraine has a lot of ammo and is getting 10 more. These pair very well with the aerial intelligence from US drones/planes, satellite intelligence, and German counter-battery Radar for a lot of precise strikes
- They’re GPS-targeted, so you get a coordinate from intelligence, and then literally dial in a GPS coordinate, and the rockets just go right there. Boom.
- https://www.defense.gov/News/News-Stories/Article/Article/3095394/us-provided-himars-effective-in-ukraine/#:~:text=The%20M142%20HIMARS%20system%20allows,of%2012%20of%20the%20systems.
- Why it matters:
- Russian tube artillery is super inaccurate, so they can’t do precise strikes. If they miss anything but a building or bridge/etc, Ukrainians can move
- Russian artillery is mostly good for wearing people out (can’t sleep, etc) and keeping them from positioning where they want to
- This is good, but it takes a long time
- HOWEVER: If your artillery tube can get sniped at any point, it’s fucking scary to be an artillery soldier now (it used to be safe)
- Russian troops do spread rumors. And they know that if their tube is creating a lot of noise, they’re at risk of being hit
- MOST IMPORTANTLY: Ukraine is targeting ammo depots really, really well. So the Russians are starting to run out of artillery ammo. And this is causing their guns to go quiet.
- https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidaxe/2022/07/24/theres-a-good-reason-russias-artillery-is-running-out-of-ammo-ukraine-keeps-blowing-it-up/?sh=185d40b13d6a
- We literally know this from NASA satellites which show hotspots: https://twitter.com/TheStudyofWar/status/1550990826993508352
- “Judging by the size of those fires, they were brigade, divisional and corps level supply dumps, which are predominantly fuel and ammo,” explained Mike Martin, a fellow with the Department of War Studies at King’s College London.
- To preserve what’s left of their ammo, the Russians are pulling back supply dumps farther from the front line. A lot farther. “This has one very simple effect,” Martin wrote. “The Russians now have to transport all those supplies, say, 100 kilometers [62 miles] rather than 30 kilometers [19 miles].”
- What this all means: in the Severodonetsk phase of the war, Russians had the medium-term time advantage because they could just grind down Ukrainians. This advantage dwindles by the day as ammo gets harder and harder to move toward the artillery itself. This gives the Ukrainians space to build and hold more defense, making it harder for Russians to successfully attack.
- A medium-term advantage for Ukraine is huge, as it means (more or less) that each day they become safer, especially if they can get boatloads of ammo from the US.
- Even more HIMARS units would be massive, but probably not going to happen
- Lots of talk about the inevitability of Ukraine taking back Kherson — don’t know if this is true one way or the other, but Ukraine is clearly prioritizing preparations for a full scale assault down there. If they can do this while also holding off the Russians in the East, holy smokes.
- Ukraine is using HIMARS to hit ammo dumps, bridges, roads, all on the south side of the river (Said river is south of Kherson). Idea is to logistically isolate Russian units there so they can’t get resupplied.
- They’ve hit a lot of targets so far. There is now no bridge to Kherson from the south, and while the Russians are rebuilding it, the Ukrainians can hit it again. Trains have been hit. Ammo depots, logistics and C&C centers. If the Ukrainians do their job well, you’ll have a bunch of Russian soldiers in trenches with very little in the way of reinforcement, resupply
- Russian units have been supplying and digging in defenses. Battle for Kherson will be tough. Really seems like Ukraine is going to go for it. But it would be a pretty huge victory if they snag it, and Russians had pulled a ton of troops from the south to be able to take Severodonetsk and Lysychansk.
- Ukrainians also have partisans operating in the south, including in Kherson, making it hard for Russians to operate freely there.
- It’s entirely possible that there is some rather large, fresh Ukrainian force ready to blow Russia all to hell and storm
- https://kyivindependent.com/national/the-battle-to-end-the-war-ukraine-has-a-chance-to-win-initiative-from-russia
- In Kharkiv, Russia seems to be trying to do more than just hold, they seem to be maybe trying to advance? Not really certain why.
- Ukrainians may also be getting US jets, finally. I don’t know what’s changed, or if it’ll happen. But, if it does, it would be a big deal. Here’s why:
- https://www.reuters.com/business/aerospace-defense/biden-oks-up-175mln-ukraine-defense-aid-white-house-says-2022-07-22/
- Ukrainians need more air support for the serious battles
- US jets have some real defensive capability — far from invulnerable, but still meaningful
- US jets could also fire missiles at static ground targets (ammo depots, artillery batteries, etc) from a distance, just as Russian jets do now
- US jets could threaten Russian jets and make it harder for Russian jets to fire
- Finally, what’s the force balance?
- Seems somewhat balanced right now — nobody is making serious headway
- Russia is slowwwwwwwly advancing in Donetsk Oblast. Seems totally unable to manage a breakthrough
- If Russia is advancing (slowly) does that mean its force is in better shape? Not necessarily, and likely we don’t have much of a signal there. Why? Ukrainians likely focusing on defense in that area no matter what, for a few reasons:
- Easier to inflict more casualties/sustain fewer on defense
- Ukraine has fewer large offensive weapons, but good defensive weapons (such as Javelins, etc)
- Ukrainians know their territory better, and Russian advances are into unfamiliar territory for them
- Ukraine’s game is to wear the Russians down and get them to the negotiating table at a disadvantage: worn out, spent, low on ammo, and afraid of a counter-attack
- Possibly looking for a “Kobani” type situation
- At this point, the fog of war is too thick to get a sense of how close the Russians are to breaking down, but common assessments (such as ISW) are that Russia won’t be able to sustain taking Donetsk, advancing in Kharkiv, and defending Kherson at the same time — something’s gotta give
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