It’s happened before, and under similar stresses: American parties have shattered into splinter groups, and the ensuing land grab has led to deep realignments, and even the end of American parties. What causes these realignments, and could they happen today?
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Today we’re talking about party realignments
Why? Because it seems the parties are at risk of tearing themselves apart.
REPUBLICANS: there’s a more overt war going on between the Trump camp and anti-Trump camp over the future of the party
DEMOCRATS: there’s a slightly less overt war between Progressives and Liberals over the future of the party regarding policy
Both have insiders vs. populists; not getting along as well as they used to.
Remember that BITD it used to be that you’d have a lot of folks vote across parties (broad tent)
In the Wedged era we were talking about highly unified parties (toe the line)
Now the parties are fracturing–more than two distinct visions and the party leadership is losing control
Within Dems: “Moderates” or traditional liberals, Progressives
Within Republicans: Traditional conservatives vs. more populist conservatives
Trying to keep these tents together is hard, relies on a lot of internal contradictions and mostly fear of the other party to keep folks together (in-group/out-group)
I really like the hidden tribes way of looking at it:
-67% of Americans are part of an “exhausted majority”
-8% on the left and 25% on the right are “wings”
Wings have been growing in size and power a la Wedged, and have started to seriously depart from conventional party ethics
-Progressives are anti-free speech, anti-”Choose your own way”
-Trumpists are anti-trade, and no longer care about conservative morality
In the GOP’s case, the Trumpists are winning, and it’s risky because he is unpopular outside of the Republican core
Each party is trying to hold wings onto exhausted majority, because they need both. Highly unstable at this point.
Progressive Activists (8 percent of the population) are deeply concerned with issues concerning equity, fairness, and America’s direction today. They tend to be more secular, cosmopolitan, and highly engaged with social media.
Traditional Liberals (11 percent of the population) tend to be cautious, rational, and idealistic. They value tolerance and compromise. They place great faith in institutions.
Passive Liberals (15 percent of the population) tend to feel isolated from their communities. They are insecure in their beliefs and try to avoid political conversations. They have a fatalistic view of politics and feel that the circumstances of their lives are beyond their control.
The Politically Disengaged (26 percent of the population) are untrusting, suspicious about external threats, conspiratorially minded, and pessimistic about progress. They tend to be patriotic yet detached from politics.
Moderates (15 percent of the population) are engaged in their communities, well informed, and civic-minded. Their faith is often an important part of their lives. They shy away from extremism of any sort.
Traditional Conservatives (19 percent of the population) tend to be religious, patriotic, and highly moralistic. They believe deeply in personal responsibility and self-reliance.
Devoted Conservatives (6 percent of the population) are deeply engaged with politics and hold strident, uncompromising views. They feel that America is embattled, and they perceive themselves as the last defenders of traditional values that are under threat.
Could they Realign?
Yes, but in unexpected ways.
All parties are coalitions
Face pressure
Crack
Then there’s a land grab
Duverger’s law
Realignments in US History
-1824; Federalists had been beaten up enough and lost repeatedly that in 1824 the election (which re-elected JQA) was 4x Democratic-Republicans. In 1928, the D-R’s had split into Democrats and Republicans/Whigs.
-Small parties still flying around (Anti-Masonic, Free Soil for example)
-Leading up to the Civil War, the Whigs were actually pretty multiregional–north and south. But this changed
“Across the Northern states, opposition to the Kansas–Nebraska Act gave rise to anti-Nebraska coalitions consisting of Democrats focused on this opposition along with Free Soilers and Whigs. In Michigan and Wisconsin, these two coalitions labeled themselves as the Republican Party, but similar groups in other states initially took on different names”
Historian Michael Holt: “The debate over the 1854 Kansas–Nebraska Act, which effectively repealed the Missouri Compromise by allowing slavery in territories north of the 36°30′ parallel, shook up traditional partisan alignments.”
–1948, segregationist / progressive split into Democrats / Dixiecrats (Truman); ended up resolving as southern Dixiecrats/Independents such as Strom Thurmond and Barry Goldwater rana as Republicans; this southern Democrat splinter group took presidential states on and off (despite the effort being hopeless) between ‘48 and ‘72
The Republican “Southern Strategy” scooped up those southern voters, and the realignment was complete. Whites that traditionally voted Democratic (such as for Truman, Kennedy) now started voting Republican.
Democrats then adjusted to win northern and coastal states by becoming dedicated liberals and progressives
Could a 3rd party last in the US?
-Not without reform, at least not stably
-Duverger’s law
-This wasn’t always true–there were sometimes 3-4 major parties, but the primary system did away with that because if you have differences you handle them in the primaries
-Dixiecrat party / American Independent – from 1948 to 1972, but resolved into Republican party
-Really need RCV at this point due to more sophisticated polling/jockeying, and the primary system
https://hiddentribes.us/#america-s-hidden-tribes
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1848_United_States_presidential_election
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Whig_Party_(United_States)#Collapse,_1853%E2%80%931856
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1960_United_States_presidential_election
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Southern_strategy
https://www.jstor.org/stable/203837?seq=1
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Political_realignment https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2021/02/the-republican-party-is-now-in-its-end-stages/618132/
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