Ukrainian victories on the ground have been swift, dramatic, and devastating. And each win seems to make them stronger.
Russian victories (back when they happened), seemed to be slow and grinding, and wear the Rusisans down, making them weaker.
Why is it that Russians lose momentum with each victory, but Ukrainians gain it? Why such asymmetric momentum?
I see 6 (or 7, depending) major reasons:
- 1. Russian Politics (“quick war”): impatience -> meat grinder, not admitting defeat, vs Ukraine’s patience
- 2. Russian Politics (show territorial progress): territory vs. Ukraine’s “defeat the enemy” -> meat grinder
- 3. Russian Politics (don’t let Ukraine show territorial progress): no retreat allowed -> break and rout
- 4. Morale, espirit de corps, discipline, “why are we here” vs fighting for home and life -> Ukrainians will die for the right reasons, Russians are drunk, will break and refuse to fight
- 5. Russian atrocities: hardens Ukrainian morale and turns them into 24/7 machines of war who get smarter and become veterans
- 6. Soviet vs. NATO style: NATO style allows for initiative and invests in training; Soviet style mass forces of limited training and centralized command means they are very predictable
- 7. Putin: total centralized control by someone who has clearly lost touch with reality
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