OK so Biden won, taking back PA, WI, MI, and flipping AZ blue for the first time since 1996 and GA blue for the first time since 1992. So this is a slightly different map than we’ve seen in a long time. FL and OH used to be THE states (remember 2000 and 2004?), and they both went solidly red this year and it just didn’t matter at all. In the 2000’s and 2010’s we also talked about CO, NM, and VA being at least in play, and those days are over. US voting patterns are changing and we’re going to talk a bit about why. There were some big surprises, and we’re going to talk about them!
Also Biden underperformed polls big time, especially badly in some states (and not at all in others). We’re not equipped to talk about why that is; go read 538 about that; I’m sure Nate Silver will valiantly mount a defense of his craft.
We likely have the percent highest turnout this year since 1900, and that’s a big deal, because a lot more people can vote at all now than could in 1900–younger people, women, and there’s no Jim Crow. And there are still major barriers to a lot of folks voting. In short, America came out IN FORCE to make its voice heard in a way that has never happened in the modern era. Biden also won the largest popular vote share (as %) of any challenger to an incumbent president since 1932, when FDR beat Hoover.
A few questions we’re going to try to take on
- How much is just people showing up when they didn’t in 2016 (didn’t like Hillary much, or didn’t care, or didn’t think she could lose) and how much of it is people changing their minds?
- Who made up the Trump and Biden coalitions?
- How comparable was this race to 2016 anyway?
Big demographic surprises (for some) and/or big changes from 2016:
- Trump did much better among Black Americans (12%) than he did in 2016 (8%)
- Trump did a bit better among Latino Americans (32%) than in 2016 (28%) (or maybe much better, if you take different exit polls)
- …but the total share of White voters was down by 4 points, and Biden still cleaned up among nonwhite voters (this may have been key in PA, MI, NV, GA)
- Biden did a bit better among Americans who make less than $50k/yr (55% vs 52%) and MUCH better among Americans who make $50k-$100k/yr (57% vs. 46%) … Trump did 7 points better among Americans making over $100k/yr than in 2016
- In other words, the middle class came out to swing for Biden)
- Speaking of Economy: Biden won prosperous urban areas, and flipped a number of them (such as Phoenix). There has been a trend since 2000 that the better an urban area is doing, the more likely it is to vote Democratic. Trump actually did better (than in 2016) among places that are struggling (more on this later):
- Biden did MUCH better among independents (54% vs 42%) and moderates (64% vs 52%)… but turnout among independents was lower (26% vs 31%)
- (So the less partisan Americans came out to swing for Biden)
- Stronger-than-ever urban-rural divide — exponentially increasing likelihood of voting Democratic with population density (https://qz.com/1927392/the-rural-urban-divide-continues-to-be-the-story-of-us-politics/)
- Biden massively out-performed conventional Democrats with US Veterans, winning 44% (to Clinton’s 34%)
- The share of first-time voters was up by over 40% (14% vs 10%) and Biden won them big big big time (64-32%) — in 2016, Clinton won 57% of this then-smaller group. In both elections, previous voters tied between the two candidates. This strongly suggests there was massive increased turnout across-the-board, but in particular, new voters who showed up for the first time, largely did so to vote for Biden / against Trump.
- Biden actually did 7 points better than Clinton among White Men, but only 1 point better among white women (and Trump did 3 points better)
- So we kinda thought “suburban white women” were going to be a huge part of Biden’s coalition and, comparatively, the shift among men was more important
- Biden did 6 points better among Catholics, and 8 points better among white evangelicals, so he ate into a core part of Trump’s support in places like Georgia, Arizona, PA.
- Biden did 5 points better than Clinton among Union voters, too
- Biden did a lot better among younger Americans than Clinton did, but they made up a slightly smaller portion of the electorate (they came out in larger numbers, but so did everyone else)
https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/2020/elections/exit-polls-changes-2016-2020/
[Let’s summarize live; some turnout, some mind-changing)
Understanding it a bit better:
- “Latino vote” – no such thing https://www.cnn.com/2020/11/09/politics/latino-voters-florida-texas-arizona/index.html
-Remember often very Catholic and anti abortion
-Remember lots of entrepreneurs and the economy is their first voting thing – very much true in South Texas, where Democrats massively under-performed their expectations
https://news.google.com/articles/CAIiEO3Kc5WvM9UGA-bA6KBi84AqGAgEKg8IACoHCAow1tzJATDnyxUwxcrPBg?hl=en-US&gl=US&ceid=US%3Aen
-Many Latino families have been Americans for decades, centuries, or since their region (Texas, New Mexico, AZ), became American
-THEY ARE NOT DEFINED BY BEING LATINO / DEFINED BY THEIR ETHNICITY – Many of them are just Americans…
-…or see themselves as a certain national identity. They don’t all care about Mexican undocumented immigrants just because they’re brown
From The Atlantic: https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2020/10/trump-latinos-biden-2020/616901/
The first time Enriquez heard Trump speak about politics was during the future president’s campaign-launch speech in 2015, when he said Mexico was “sending people that have lots of problems, and they’re bringing those problems with us. They’re bringing drugs. They’re bringing crime.” Enriquez told me he could forgive the president’s comments. “I know exactly the status of Mexico, and how crime has completely just taken over the beautiful country that is Mexico. So when President Trump was talking about what Mexico is sending, I immediately knew—I understood [what he meant],” Enriquez said. “Did he word it correctly? No, but he did emphasize that, you know, it wasn’t all Mexicans.”
-Trump went aggressively after non-progressive Latinos, some of whom resent liberals for trying so hard to define them by their ethnicity and assume their ethnicity is their primary political driver - The Black American vote isn’t a single bloc, either! In Pennsylvania, Biden did six points BETTER than Clinton did among Black Americans, and it was key to him winning the state, despite doing worse nationally (he did worse in Michigan, much better in Nevada, and actually neutral in Georgia) https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/2020/elections/exit-polls-changes-2016-2020/
- 81% of Black Americans didn’t want less police presence, even at the height of BLM protests: https://www.newsweek.com/81-black-americans-dont-want-less-police-presence-despite-protestssome-want-more-cops-poll-1523093
- Note that Black Americans are massively disproportionately affected by violence and crime, and while I’m speculating a bit, likely didn’t resonate with progressive activists on Twitter saying that police should be defunded or abolished… some Black Americans may have resonated with the law and order message
- There were a ton of changes between states. So Trump actually did BETTER in Florida, and about as well in Ohio and Nevada
- The economy one is interesting. Typically a President does better across the board when, generally, people think the economy is good. (Erik remembers reading a paper in college that people tended to vote on the national economy as a whole, not their local situation, for President.) We’re seeing this growing regionalization… but we typically expect that the places that are “prospering” vote for the status quo, not their replacement, and places that are struggling vote for something new. We saw the opposite.
- In some ways, Biden was just more popular across the board, except among Republicans. Moderates/Independents far preferred him. He did better among Veterans, Union workers. He did better among white Americans, particularly men. He did slightly worse among Latino/Black voters, but still cleaned house with them and their share of the electorate grew. He crushed among first-time voters. So there are warbles here and there, but Americans just liked Biden more; it’s kindof that simple.
- Republican turnout got the bigger bump than Democratic turnout, actually–they were just hyper-motivated to vote. And that may not have been reflected in the polls (they always have high turnout; how much higher could it have gone?). So Biden was more popular, but Republicans showed up in just absolutely record force.
- There is debate over whether the Never Trump movement (a la The Lincoln Project, The Bulwark, etc) made much of a difference, however Washington Post has some interesting numbers that Erik finds compelling:
- 7% of Trump voters switched to Biden (this is consistent in PA, MI, WI, and GA)
- Moderate/independent voters swung by 12 points for Biden
- Possibly 5% of voters who voted for a Republican congressional candidate voted for Biden
Progressives seem to blame the Lincoln Project for hurting the Democrats down-ballot, but I think their logic is backwards. https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2020/11/12/did-republicans-vote-against-trump/
- Urbanization is playing a role, slowly but surely. Urban areas continue to grow faster than rural ones. And it’s happening disproportionately–in the south and the west. Atlanta, Phoenix, Dallas, Houston, Austin. Texas has six of the top 15 fastest-growing urban areas (and 3 of the top 4). Urban areas, more than ever, now vote heavily Democratic.
https://www.census.gov/newsroom/press-releases/2020/south-west-fastest-growing.html
- The country is changing demographically, and this has some long-term trends. The Hispanic population increased from 16% to 18% of the population, and Black and Asian Americans have grown as well. They tend to vote heavily Democratic.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Historical_racial_and_ethnic_demographics_of_the_United_States
The long-term trend seems to favor Democrats–in particular breaking into GA and AZ are a big deal… but OH seems to have moved decisively Republican, at least for now. Long-term I think eyes very much need too be on Texas, despite Biden underperforming expectations.
Reporting Bias
- Polls and exit polls split people up by demography: age, sex, gender, sexuality, ethnicity, race — we therefore assume these really matter, and that there are strong voting blocs
- Sometimes that’s true, but often it’s not
- We think this way because we always have
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